Vietnam’s rural areas are emerging as a major frontier for retail growth, as middle-class households outside the country’s largest cities are set to expand rapidly over the next decade, according to a report by Saigon – Hanoi Securities JSC (SHS). With over 60% of the population living in rural areas, demand is shifting toward higher-quality products and greater food safety. McKinsey & Company data cited in the report show that between 2020 and 2030, the number of households earning above USD 22,000 annually outside the 15 largest cities is projected to grow 2.3-fold, outpacing growth in Hanoi (1.8-fold) and Ho Chi Minh City (1.6-fold). Middle-income households in HCMC are expected to rise from 1.4 million to 2.2 million, Hanoi from 1.5 million to 2.6 million, and other localities outside the major cities from 3.6 million to 8.4 million.
SHS forecasts that Vietnam’s retail goods market will expand by 77% by 2030 compared with 2025, driven by a young, increasingly wealthy population, ranking seventh globally in consumer numbers. Domestic retailers have significant opportunities to increase market share thanks to large store networks and local insights. By 2030, the total food retail market is expected to reach USD 85 billion, with fast-moving consumer goods accounting for 12–15%. Modern trade remains underdeveloped, representing only 19% of total retail sales compared with peers such as Thailand (60%), Indonesia (32%), and the Philippines (52%), leaving room for further expansion.
Retailers are actively targeting rural growth. Masan Group has rolled out its “WinMart+ Rural” strategy, aiming to open 1,900 new stores in 2025, capitalizing on urbanization and changing consumer habits in rural areas. Mobile World Investment Corporation’s grocery chain Bach Hoa Xanh launched its “Northward expansion” campaign at the end of 2025, opening 20 stores in Ninh Binh province as the first phase of a northern and north-central rollout. The chain aims for USD 10 billion in revenue by 2030, betting on the rising purchasing power of rural consumers. These developments highlight the growing importance of Vietnam’s rural population as a key driver of retail expansion in the coming decade.
Source: The Investor
